The Food Riot Meme

By Bill Hoyt

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

The Wall Street Journal picks up an interesting torch:

I don't want to alarm anybody, but maybe it's time for Americans to start stockpiling food.

No, this is not a drill.

You've seen the TV footage of food riots in parts of the developing world. Yes, they're a long way away from the U.S. But most foodstuffs operate in a global market. When the cost of wheat soars in Asia, it will do the same here.

I guess the food meme is spreading, at least the "need" version of it, as several large papers and magazines have noted in the past week that some staples like rice and flour are already being rationed on the coasts. And it will be interesting to see how quickly that converts from one based on fear of there being none to one based on confidence; not confidence that "bad things can't happen here*" but confidence that "Whatever the problem, I will do what it takes to solve it for my family."

Most of the stories so far treat food as if it were one big, interchangeable commodity, as if a bunch of bananas was the same as a box of Chex or a side of beef. And as I was walking the aisles at WalMart last night I was pondering how nothing could be further from the truth. One can buy potatoes, just stuck in a bag, for $x. If one spent the same amount of money on potato chips, one would get less. Much less. An order of magnitude less.

One difference of course is processing - we are paying the vast majority of our food money for someone else to put it in a form that is convenient for us. The cheese is shredded, the bacon is sliced, shrinkwrapped and refrigerated, the breakfast cereal comes in a multicolored cardboard box with an internal liner and a little plastic toy. So long as that is the case, America does not have a food cost problem as much as we have a packaging cost problem, and that kind of a problem is much easier to overcome.

I suspect it will become obvious to us very quickly, and will be overcome just as quickly. As people come to realize they can no longer afford their potatoes to be sliced, fried, and shaped into interlocking pieces stored in a foil-lined cardboard tube with a plastic lid, they'll just buy potatoes in a bag. Or they'll grow their own.

A second difference is transport - it simply costs more to ship bananas from Guatemala than corn from Hays. Some things may be going away or will become prohibitively expensive. So be ready to make substitutions.

Our system has allowed us the luxury of spending far more on packing and moving our food than on the actual food. And that has been a cushion that will buffer the costs of food so long as we are willing to make substitutions and a few sacrifices of convenience on our own part.

We can all do that; hell for our grandparents it was a matter of course. Which means that if America develops a hunger problem, it will not be because we don't have potatoes in bags, but because people don't have the faintest idea what to do with them and have less interest in learning.

*Which is not even confidence, but foolish denial. Foolish because it is already happening here.

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Posted by dolores2175 (April Fleming) on April 23, 2008 at 12:24 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Sam's Club is limiting the sales of rice:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNe...

Posted by duplenty (anonymous) on April 23, 2008 at 1:20 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Nah, now that I can purchase a fully automatic machine gun in Kansas this July, ain't nobody takin' my rice.

Posted by El_Borak (Bill Hoyt) on April 23, 2008 at 2:13 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Well, so long as there are no ammo shortages.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires...

Posted by measles (anonymous) on April 23, 2008 at 3:25 p.m. (Suggest removal)

They grow bananas in Hays?

In all seriousness, you are right. Of course, the fact that organic products are more expensive than processed ones still blows my mind, but yes, we will have to start seeking out more local, less-proccessed foodstuffs. Fortunately, I think Lawrence is a good place to be. My neighbor just got 2 pet chickens...maybe he has the right idea.

Posted by mitzibel (Misty Nuckolls) on April 23, 2008 at 8:27 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Yeah, our city ordinances in OP won't allow chickens, but they don't say NUTHIN 'bout tasty tasty bunnies. I'm looking into building a hutch.

We've already notices shortages of rice at Costco here in KC; luckily there are enough Indian groceries around for us to get our basmati fix.

And organic produce is more expensive simply because of yield. I'm pulling numbers out of my ass here, but I'm guessing that with hybrid seeds, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides, you can probably get at *least* twice the yield per acre than you can without.

When TSHTF, it's going to be communities in California and the Southwest that are really screwed, when it becomes cost prohibitive to irrigate all that "farmland" and it reverts back to desert within a season.

Posted by clayhill70 (anonymous) on April 23, 2008 at 11:15 p.m. (Suggest removal)

I hear Hamsters are quite tasty with a light sweet and sour glaze and their demise wouldn't be nearly as noticeable to the neighbors.
Speaking of banannas, just think how expensive they would be if United Fruit hadn't had the CIA arrange for the sudden earthly departure of Guzman in Guataumala. United Fruit, the CIA and the United States armed forces now theres a subject not discussed in college business courses........maybe Harvard.

Posted by El_Borak (Bill Hoyt) on April 23, 2008 at 11:18 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Bunnies are just chickens that allow everyone to have a leg.

But I think you're right about organic, if it was as cheap to grow as corporate, all the corporates would grow it. They don't use hybrids from the pure evil of their hearts, you know, but because they are in business to sell food at a profit to people who choose to eat it. So are organics, they just serve a different product to a different clientele.

Posted by mitzibel (Misty Nuckolls) on April 24, 2008 at 7:49 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Weren't guinea pigs once quite popular as food? There's a thought . . .

Posted by TheEleventhStephanie (anonymous) on April 24, 2008 at 9:55 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Leave the hamsters alone!

Posted by ladylaw (Terry Bush) on April 25, 2008 at 4:09 p.m. (Suggest removal)

You know my thoughts - I divide the world into three main categories - food, non-food, and possible food. And my possible food category has a lot of room for new additions....if need be! So sorry Steph, hamsters and bunnies and lots of other things may be very cute indeed...but if my family was starving, Mental the hamster might not look nearly as cute to me .... I'm just saying......

Seriously though, Bill, do you think that it is time to start putting back a year's worth of canned good, water and ammo? Or past time?

Posted by El_Borak (Bill Hoyt) on April 25, 2008 at 8:08 p.m. (Suggest removal)

A year's worth? No chance. Besides, most people will set aside freeze-dried foods that they would never eat anyway - and then when the year (or 10 years) is up, it turns out to be money poorly spent. they end up feeding it to the dog. I've lived on dehydrated peanut butter. It sucks so much that a person will ALWAYS choose to consume the good stuff first. And besides, if you have to go more than two months without a grocery store, all your neighbors are going to be wandering around mumbling, "change..," I mean, "Brains....brains..."

It's not time to panic, but to think. You don't need to go to Sam's and buy 80# of rice, especially if you don't eat it regularly. On the other hand, if you find yourself buying 2 cans of fruit or a pound of hamburger every few days, it might not be a bad idea to double up on that for a bit, at least until you have enough that when the week comes that such is in short supply, you can leave what IS there for people who did not stock up. Rather than buying a pound of rice, buy a (one) 10-pound bag and live off it a while, saving yourself 9 trips to the store.

Stocking up when times are good solves two problems: it provides more for the people waiting in line, and it keeps you out of that line. Even better if you can avoid the line most of the time by buying direct from farmers, making your own bread (better for you anyway), buying in bulk and refilling smaller containers from a large one.

We don't have the same problems as places like Egypt; we have lots of big, well-watered yards where we can grow at least a little something. But if our budgets and nerves are going to survive what could be a significant change to the world food market, it makes sense to face that and decide on some common-sense changes while we still enjoy the luxury of the fullest (and cheapest) grocery stores in the world.

Posted by synapsis (anonymous) on April 26, 2008 at 2:23 a.m. (Suggest removal)

Aw hell... I knew this day would come. It's a good thing I know how to make my own beer. :)

Posted by El_Borak (Bill Hoyt) on April 26, 2008 at 7:16 p.m. (Suggest removal)

Kudos, synapsis. I salute one who understands the importance of priorities.

The Food Riot Meme

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