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December 3, 2010
The boys discuss the documentary "William S. Burroughs: A Man Within," belated sequels and what that could mean for "Tron: Legacy," and Eric makes an early Oscar prediction.
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I do have another sequel I'm surprised you missed, Toy Story 3 an 11 year gap between the 2 and 3 movies. Also Before Sunset came 9 years after Before Sunrise and was an excellent sequel that really furthered the characters.
I actually thought of Before Sunrise right after we finished the podcast! Nice one on TS3; especially funny if you listen to the very last segment of the podcast--ha!
I'd even written down Before Sunrise on my desk. Gah!
Yeah I'm beginning to come round to your train of thought on that Eric, I can't see them going with Inception, Winter's Bone or The Kid's Are Alright based on genre, the coen brothers and danny boyle have both recently won so they're out, I think Black Swan will be a little too left of centre for the academy (although I did think the same about No Country for Old Men) and they don't seem to give Aranofsky much love.
Animal Kingdom and Social Network have outside chances as BP nominees but I don't think they will stand a chance either. Not sure how this King's Speech movie will go in the lead up to the awards but at the moment it seems to be toy story 3's main rival and does have the weinstein factor on its side.
The highest grossing animated film ever, right? Well I know as you guys stated before Disney and Pixar are definitely going for it. I don't see it happening, but it is a 3rd film in a beloved franchise that started the company as you said. This might be the right time to reward Pixar for the 3rd swan song.
Films that I think have a strong shot of getting a Picture nomination, but not going all the way for the win would be Inception(original, box office success, strong reviews, hot off The Dark Knight, but I did hear some members walked out), The Kids Are All Right(indie cred, actor's flick, well regarded), 127 Hours(strong reviews, Boyle's hot off Slumdog Millionaire), Black Swan(actors will dig it the most, doing well in a small release), The Fighter(somewat safe traditional flick, actor's movie, could do well box office wise), and The Town. Also I think if the Winter's Bone continues to make a stamp in these critics group awards, it could very well get in the last spot over The Town(critical financial success, well regarded, genre flick, but an actor's movie). I don't think 127 Hours amputation scene will hurt it, but it certainly won't help it, but is Boyle now really an oscar favorite after Slumdog Millionaire? He's certainly a talented director, but is he now one the Academy loves?
I'm coming around on Black Swan getting in based on the reviews, and the mere fact I think actors will appreciate not merely for the performances particularly the central one by Portman, but the fact it is about performers. From what I understand too actors make up most of the voting branch. I still think it might be a too out there and unaccessible with leave some of the members divided but as of right now, its got all the necessary talk. National Board of Review isn't necessarily a critical thing, but as the first of the big awards, it omit The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, and Black Swan from their top list.
I think there are 3 other strong contenders for the prize besides Toy Story 3 though I'm not totally sold on the arguments for Toy Story 3 will be strong enough to pull off something like that. Avatar in many regards was heavily more animated than live action, so not entirely sure if they will reward Toy Story 3 among other reasons. This is Pixar though so it could happen. The other 3 are The Social Network, The King's Speech, and True Grit.
The Social Network did well box office wise and is arguably the critics darling and one audiences could possibly get behind even if many didn't care or like the characters. Does Fincher make tearjerker films? No, but I found the generally cold film strangely moving from him in the last 20 minutes or so. Its about as good as a film can get in terms of directing, writing, and acting with no ounce of fat on the entire picture. Possibly the best commerical film since the perfect No Country for Old Men(quietl moving, but somewhat cold). It doesn't have the grandoise budget of Avatar, but isn't nearly as small as The Hurt Locker. Its also the zeitgeist flick of the year that could very well get the critics groups behind it.
The King's Speech is the somewhat more traditional film oddly enough following a leader of a sort just like The Social Network. I think it actually looks quite good rather than being a strictly uptight period piece, but its 3 actors will likely get nominated, and it will find plenty of technical nominations. Well regarded with a lead performance that will most likely take the gold. Top it off you got Harvey Weinstein behind it who could pull off miracles and get ballsy flicks like Inglourious Basterds nominated or dull flicks like The Reader(who the hell was talking about this that season) in. Its warm and fuzzy. That's a good thing, though we are seeing a change from the Academy as of lately.
Then there is True Grit, the late bloomer of the season. Never underestimate the power of the Coens, which I'm happy to say the Academy loves so much that A Serious Man thankfully got in. Might be a remake of a flick that featured one Hollywood's icons, but it sure as hell didn't have the Coens behind it. Early reviews have said the film completely succeeds capturing the book far better than the original film. Film could actually find some box office success for the Coens though I wouldn't bank on it looking at their numbers. Talented cast and I'm sure they have a talented crew. Doesn't hurt to have composer Carter Burwell and cinematographer Roger Deakins behind the film. Westerns haven't so hot with American audiences, but the Academy might be a bit more responsive to it.
Hmm...they just might want to recognize producer Scott Rudin(The Social Network, True Grit) again. Though I agree with ya Eric. I just don't know if I see them getting recognized again that soon. Then again, the Academy has their favorites. Maybe they don't look at it like "Oh well we just recognized these guys a few years ago." Just hope the Academy spreads the wealth a bit in terms of winners.
Longest comment ever!!!-James
James I think you might be right with the fighter, depending on how things go I think it might get a nomination. I don't think the town will though, and I'm not sure that the Social Network really stands that much of a chance at the main prize. I also think its a bit unfair to compare Toy Story 3 with Avatar (both in quality and oscar stock), Avatar was cgi/motion capture and everyone knew it, that was the point with the film, everyone knows that Toy Story 3 is a straight up animated film. Also avatar was a sci fi which is also a genre the academy stays away from. I think there is a good chance that the academy will go with toy story 3 and finally award pixar for their phenomenal work over the last 15 or so years, but I am still wary that it being animated may still be too much for them to look over and they may just give it best animated film instead (again).
Well I totally agree with ya that while I enjoyed Avatar, yes Toy Story 3 is far better. Perhaps......I don't know. Maybe they should elimate the Animated Category, but it should would make a stamp for Toy Story 3 to win Animated which everyone would see coming, and then winning picture would throw everyone off. Tough to say. Its a political association, but I'm not entirely sure their all on the same page and say "well what's our edgy pick for the year?" As for the Town I'm not sold yet either, but from what I understand members and people in Hollywood are loving it. Its suits as a film that satisfied audiences for the most part and certainly has quality it needs for the Academy. Despite a somewhat chessy ending that I didn't entirely buy, I know I enjoyed it. Not entirely sure if the prestige of actor gone director means anything, but with two outings as a director, Affleck has humbly reinvented himself and I think the Academy likes him.
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