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Posted by Chris Baker May 16, 2007 at 12:09 a.m.

State of the Industry - Spring 2007 Edition Part One

State of the Industry Spring 2007 EditionIt has now been just over a year since I produced a [launch analysis for Microsoft's Xbox 360][1] and quite a bit has changed since then. The "last E3 ever" came and went, the Xbox 360 has sold over 10 million units worldwide and of course, the Nintendo Wii and Sony Playstation 3 have both launched. With that said, I think now is a good time to revisit the issue with a new State of the Industry update, split into three parts, one for each platform split across the next few weeks.Part One: Nintendo's WiiNintendo is in a position they haven't experienced since the early 90's; leading the market in console sales for more than six consecutive months and this trend does not appear to be slowing down anytime soon. Nintendo has done an amazing job of convincing consumers that the Wii is the console to be excited about and they are buying it in droves. Considering their performance in the last two console generations, this really is an incredible feat. The Wii's path to success likely began with the Nintendo DS. Back in 2004 the Wii went by the unofficial name "Revolution" and with Nintendo's trademark veil of secrecy extended, very little was known about it. The DS launched in November 2004 with little fanfare and was mostly overlooked by many. Consumers really didn't know what to make of the new dual screen handheld, by and large taking a "wait and see" approach. Initial software was mostly forgettable and Sony was doing an excellent job of marketing it's soon to be released Playstation Portable which would feature gorgeous widescreen visuals, online play and net access, as well as music and movie playback via their new UMB disk format. At a time when better graphics usually meant better hardware in the minds of most consumers, the DS was a hard sell for many and it's promised revolutionary gameplay made possible by the twin screens (one of which being touch sensitive) had yet to be proven.However, over the course of 2005 and 2006 the DS software library really showed what Nintendo's handheld could do. With games like Wario Ware: Touched, Kirby's Canvas Curse, Meteos, Nintendogs, and Advance Wars: Dual strike, Mario Kart DS & Animal Crossing: Wild World (introducing online play), all coming in 2005 alone, gamers began to believe that Nintendo may know what it is doing far as developing unique new ways of playing games. This faith alone set the Wii up for success with gamers everywhere willing to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt despite the relative failure of the Gamecube and Nintendo 64. It was this growing excitement that helped them dominate the most defining moment in the next generation console war to date, E3 2006.Nintendo rocked the house at E3 with their incredible press conference at the Kodak Theater (also unofficially known as the home of American Idol), fully unveiling the hardware itself and its upcoming software lineup. With revealing announcements and demonstrations by Reggie and Shigeru Miyamoto, as well as a few spectacularly entertaining demo reels, excitement for the Wii reached a boiling point that caused the Nintendo booth space on the show floor to host lines that ran around the entire building. So impressive were their wares that your own Lawrence.com crew locked themselves into Nintendo's booth for nearly a whole day of the three day experience. The Wii was a genuinely exciting, hot topic throughout the event. Playing Zelda, Metroid, Mario Galaxy, the Wii Sports games, etc. were a joy and felt very natural after only a few minutes of play. You can look back at our E3 coverage to confirm, but had we awarded a "Most exciting console of the year" award, Nintendo absolutely would have taken it home following E3 2006. With our limited budget however, this award might have consisted of a hand drawn Mario figure on a piece of paper with the word "awesome in 2006!" written next to him. I'm sure Nintendo reps would have politely accepted it and then promptly left it on the airplane "by accident."Nintendo's "victory" at E3 was total and absolute. They converted critics and stunned the competition. Those who called it Nintendo's next "kiddie" console forgot about the silly names and realized that the Wii was going to be fun. The motion controller based gameplay, Virtual Console, promised online gameplay support and more were compelling, especially considering it's $250 price point (announced later on), which would include the Wii Sports compilation. Nintendo's "Playing is believing" slogan was more than just a marketing line, it was reality.By and large, the launch went off without a hitch. Excitement for the Wii launch itself never quite reached that which surrounded the Playstation 3's bloated release, but it was genuine, as opposed to those who waited in line for days to get a Playstation 3 to hawk on eBay a few days prior. The software lineup was compelling, with the excellent "Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess" leading the way, backed up by a solid list of lesser B & C grade titles such as Super Monkey Ball, Rayman: Raving Rabbits, Excite Truck, etc. The only real disappointment was the fact that there wasn't, and still isn't, enough units available to meet demand. With over 6 million units sold to date, they still can't produce them fast enough to keep them on store shelves for much longer than a few hours. Of course, you know you've got a great product when the biggest problem going for you is that you can't make them fast enough to meet demand.Well, that wasn't the only hiccup to an otherwise great launch. Before the first week was up, reports surfaced on the net that the straps attached to the Wii remote were snapping, allowing the remotes to fly out of players hands and breaking, or breaking the objects that they collided with. Nintendo responded quickly, offering to replace all straps free of charge with a new version that featured a thicker connector cable, solving the issue before it became a headline grabbing problem.Since November, we've seen the release of several quality Wii titles, including Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Super Paper Mario, and Elebits. Of course the best is still on its way, with Mario Galaxy, Metroid Prime: Corruption, Super Smash Brothers and more. The Virtual Console still adds an average of two new games per week (though we'd love to get some original titles as well), the Opera web browser is available, as is the News and Weather channels. Thus far, Nintendo has proven that the Wii is a capable machine that can deliver a whole new kind of gameplay not previously possible anywhere else. With that said, we still haven't seen any smash hit games that have really shown off the unique capabilities of the system. Frankly, many of the Nintendo releases thus far have been simple Gamecube ports (Zelda, Super Paper Mario, Excite Truck, etc.) and while they have been excellent games, they aren't anything that we couldn't have played with on the Gamecube if they had finished their development on that platform. Looking forward to this fall and the lucrative Christmas season, Nintendo will attempt to remedy this situation. For the moment however, Wii sales continue at a record pace, which will serve to guarantee continued large scale Developer/Publisher support for Wii development. In fact, due to the cost of development for a Wii title compared to a PS3/Xbox 360 title, we can likely expect to see a lot more creative experimentation on the Wii which is a great thing for gamers.As noted, Wii owners have a lot to look forward to in the second half of 2007. We'll see the release of a lot of great games and the much delayed online gameplay strategy. With an ever expanding Virtual Console game list to boot, we really can't ask for anything more. Let there be no doubt, the Wii will dominate 2007.2006 Performance: A2007 Prognosis: A [1]: http://www.lawrence.com/blogs/gamer/2006/jan/11/360chris/