"It's a Close Race, Huh?" by Hate the Player

October 20, 2008

This is stunning, just stunning. Let's just look at the rally attendance numbers, from two recent appearances by both candidates. Remember, it's hard to get an accurate count in crowd situations like this, so take it for what it's worth. Counts via ABC news, Kansas City Star, Anchorage Daily News, and NY Times.[ Photobucket ][1]Obama in St. Louis= approx. 100,000 Obama in Kansas City= approx. 75,000 McCain in Kansas City= approx. 6,000 McCain in Columbia, MO= 15Holy shit. Think about it this way, people who come out to rallies are just the ones motivated to travel and wait in line. You know, like you do on election day. I wonder what the fund raising has been like this month? Lemme check real fast. Whoa! Last month: Obama= $150 Million McCain= $66 MillionIn my tease I referred to articles reporting that it's still a close race, but just now trying to find anything recently reported comes up dry. Is it time to start replacing that ass clenching terror of losing with exhausting excitement? How does Obama leaving the campaign trail (which even with these numbers surprises me) effect the next two weeks?-m@ [1]: http://s10.photobucket.com/albums/a127/matt1276/?action=view&current=r-OBAMA-ST-LOUIS-huge-1.jpg" target="_blank

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OtherJoel (anonymous) says...

Zogby's giving an 8-point advantage to Obama today, and he's leading where it counts. What I think will screw up the polls: cell phones. Most polling agencies still use land lines, and most of us under 35 have dropped ours. This demographic should favor Obama, and it still seems like he's got some momentum for a good young voter turnout, so there's some blowout potential here.That said, I'm hesitant to get too optimistic. McCain is known for pulling 11th hour victories out of his ass, and the last couple of elections, Republican-dominated precincts have had an, um, "easier" time voting than many Democratic ones (e.g. Columbus, OH in '04), though ACORN may get out the all-important Mickey Mouse vote.So I'm not calling this one until it's done.

October 21, 2008 at 8:45 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

godjilla (Jill Ensley) says...

My mother, god bless her, wasted a stamp to mail me a highlighted, marked-up copy of a shitty NY Post Op-Ed piece on Obama and that scary bunch of Commies called ACORN. She also mailed one to my best friend's mother. I say this, because there are die-hard McCainiacs out there. And I don't think we should underestimate them yet. In other words, what O to tha J said.Also, I am SO TIRED of community organizer being put in quotes.Wanna read something stupid?: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12242...

October 21, 2008 at 10:12 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

Mr_A (Bryan Anderson) says...

To make sense of the polls go here:http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/It is my new favorite election polling site. Wait, umm...It is my only favorite election polling site.

October 21, 2008 at 10:14 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

matt (Matt Armstrong) says...

Oh God, ACORN. It just reeks of desperation. Did you go to the Rally on Saturday? There was a guy in a Chipmunk suit holding a sign that just said ACORN on it, with an X through it. I wanted so desperately to go ask them if they knew what it stood for. I'm totally with you on the cell phone tip. The other one, and Lawrence.com had a great story on this last week, is kids. First time voters and motivated youth is going to be big this year. There were so many under 25 year olds at the caucus that wouldn't have bothered coming out in previous elections. I mean, 4 packed locations for the Dems versus 1 elementary school that was hardly noticed? That's crazy, and it's not reflected in the polls. That being said, yes yes yes don't give up on it as "won" until the 5th.

October 21, 2008 at 10:32 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

DOTDOT (anonymous) says...

I have been polled several times, and recruited for an "undecided" watch party at the Dole on my cellphone, which, put together, makes more election activity than in the past thirty somethin somethin years of my voting life.If y'all want, give me your cell phone numbers and I will forward them on to you.

October 21, 2008 at 1:26 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

alm77 (anonymous) says...

I posted this to Keith's blog, but since it's not on the l.com main page, I'll ask it here too:This lady got turned away from the polls for her Obama T-shirt:http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/10/21/jones.nm.voter.turned.away.mxf.koatIs that going to happen here too? I was planning on wearing my "T" (as in the bus) shirt to the polls. But, I don't wanna get sent to the back of the line!!!

October 21, 2008 at 1:55 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )

Feents (Caterina Benalcazar) says...

After 2000 and 2004, I will never ever ever ever ever dare to hope in an election again. If Bush can get elected TWICE then what's the point? I for one plan on shitting bricks until the fifth.

October 21, 2008 at 4:07 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )