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Posted by Eric Melin February 19, 2008 at 11:33 p.m.

Will Win/Should Win: 2008 Oscar Predictions

Usually the hype surrounding the Oscars is all about who's going to win, but this year, with the ongoing writer's strike reducing the Golden Globes to an embarrassing press conference starring the cheesemeister Billy Bush, the talk was all about whether the 80th Academy Awards would even happen at all. Now that we know they are (with host Jon Stewart), it's time to turn our attention towards the fun part-picking the winners. Hopefully, these predictions will help your work Oscar pool, or maybe you'll come to [Louise's Downtown on Sunday, Feb. 24 at 7pm][1] and try to win cash at our big [Scene-Stealers Oscar Party][2]. Either way, the show is more fun if you pick winners and keep score, so here goes mine:Best Animated Feature Persepolis Ratatouille Surf's Up Critics love it, it made $620 million worldwide, and it is inevitable. Will and should win: RatatouilleBest Documentary Feature No End in Sight Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience Sicko Taxi to the Dark Side War/Dance _Believe it or not, the one doc that had nothing to do with war this year was from Michael Moore. Even though he's out of fashion right now, and his film didn't come close to _Fahrenheit 9/11 box office, he asked some tough questions not only about the U.S. health care system, but who we are as a society if we deny coverage to our own citizens just when they need it the most. Watch out, though, Oscar voters have to be able to say they saw all five nominees before voting, and Alex Gibney's torture policy examination Taxi to the Dark Side has the current zeitgeist and is gaining some speed. Will and should win: SickoOriginal Screenplay Juno Lars and the Real Girl Michael Clayton Ratatouille The Savages _This is a strong category that would seem to yield five possible candidates to win if it weren't for the _Juno juggernaut-a sleeper hit with no big stars about an unwanted teenage pregnancy. Screenwriter and former stripper Diablo Cody is the toast of Hollywood right now, and the only way she won't win is if they are tired of hearing about her. Tamara Jenkins' pitch-perfect, tragicomic The Savages was the most fully-realized of all these great scripts, but: Will win: Juno Should win: The SavagesAdapted Screenplay Atonement Away from Her The Diving Bell and the Butterfly No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood The Coen brothers already have an Oscar for writing Fargo, their best film to date. But they've just received the Writers Guild Award for their faithful, elegiac adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's "No Country for Old Men," making them clear front-runners. Paul Thomas Anderson earns his third screenplay nomination for using Upton Sinclair's 1927 novel "Oil!" as no more than a springboard for his off-the-rails American epic There Will Be Blood. The other nominees are all solid, and special marks should go to Ronald Harwood's The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, for wrestling a point-of-view movie script from the decidedly uncinematic memoir of a man who was paralyzed, save for an eyelid. Will win: No Country for Old Men _Should win: _There Will Be BloodBest Supporting Actress Cater Blanchett - I'm Not There _Ruby Dee - _American Gangster _Saoirse Ronan - _Atonement Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone _Tilda Swinton - _Michael Clayton _This category is the most up for grabs this year. Blanchett has the Golden Globe, Ryan has the Critics Choice award, Dee has the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) award (or, the career achievement award for her six minutes of screen time), and Swinton has a slew of critics' groups awards. 13 year-old newcomer Ronan is out of the picture. I choose to believe that the Oscars will go with the most searing, layered, and naturalistic performance and not the biggest star, and give the statue to Ryan for _Gone Baby Gone. Will and should win: Amy RyanBest Supporting Actor Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men _Philip Seymour Hoffman - _Charlie Wilson's War Hal Holbrook -_ Into the Wild_ Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton _Hoffman was hilarious, Wilkinson was crazy, Holbrook was heartbreaking, and Affleck was nervous and strangely affecting, but only one person this year created a character that will go down in history as one of the most frightening villains of all time, and that is Javier Bardem. Holbrook's film was too ambitious and too long, but he was the best thing about it. The 82 year-old actor is also the oldest nominee ever in this category, but it won't be enough to trump Bardem, friend-o. Will and should win: Javier BardemBest Actress
Cate Blanchett - _Elizabeth: The Golden Age Julie Christie - Away from Her Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose Laura Linney - The Savages Ellen Page - Juno _Like the Supporting Actor category, this is a two-person race, with Page as a possible, if unlikely, spoiler. Cotillard is a virtual unknown in a severely flawed French film, but her performance as tragic singer Edith Piaf was completely transformative. Christie has the edge however, for playing a vivacious woman stricken with Alzheimer's disease in a complicated and mature movie about the life's concessions. Linney was equally impressive in _The Savages, but her nomination itself was a surprise, so she has no real chance to win. Will win: Julie Christie Should win: Marion CotillardBest Actor George Clooney - Michael Clayton _Daniel Day-Lewis - _There Will Be Blood _Johnny Depp - _Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street _Tommy Lee Jones - _In the Valley of Elah _Viggo Mortensen - _Eastern Promises _Pop Quiz: Who said all of the quotes below, which are quickly becoming classic movie catch phrases? a. "I have a competition in me. I want no one else to succeed." b. "Well, that was one goddamn hell of a show." c. "There are times when I look at people and I see nothing worth liking." d. "Just give me the blood Eli, let me get out of here. Give me the blood, Lord, and let me get away!" e. "I drink your milkshake! I drink it up!" Will and should win: Daniel Day-LewisBest Director
_The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Julian Schnabel Juno - Jason Reitman Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy No Country for Old Men - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson Having already won the Directors Guild Award and virtually every critics' group award, the Coens are a cinch to take this one home. And if they take home the other three awards that they directly are nominated for (and not just their movie), they will be only the second (and third) person to do so ever-behind only Walt Disney! Schnabel and Anderson showed a fierce amount of talent as well, though I'd have to go with Anderson if I must choose between them all, for his invigorating, provocative, uniquely funny and beautiful There Will Be Blood. Will win: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen Should win: Paul Thomas AndersonBest Picture Atonement Juno Michael Clayton No Country for Old Men There Will Be Blood Here we go. Next to the Supporting Actress category, this is the other possible big surprise of the night. Having won the SAG award for Best Ensemble, the Producers Guild Award for Best Picture, and almost every critics' group award, No Country for Old Men is perfectly poised to take home the little gold man. But wait-it is a grim arthouse movie disguised as a thriller and has an ending many people don't get. These same things apply also to There Will Be Blood. Although both are critical favorites, that small audience could be divided so much between them that neither will have enough votes to win the big one. Michael Clayton will be too low key. Atonement will take its fair share of technical awards, so Oscar voters may think that is reward enough for the over-hyped English epic. That leaves the biggest-grossing movie on this list and the only one with a traditional happy ending-the $118 million little movie that could, Juno. Think it can't happen? I hope it doesn't, but I hear they give away Oscars like free iPods. You know, they pretty much just put them in those T-shirt guns and shoot them out at sporting events. Will win:_ Juno Should win: _There Will Be Blood [1]: http://www.lawrence.com/events/2008/feb/24/25909/ [2]: http://www.scene-stealers.com/giveaways/2008-oscar-pick-em-contest/#comments